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Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds. The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.
This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 am and 12:00 pm
For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still holds up. It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.
For optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. If you see a different line The Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.
Last updated: May 17, 2022, 10:00 am EST
Six straight losses to end the first round and bring us to break-even for the playoffs. Ouch. Thanks a lot Jake Oettinger! I don’t think we’ll have much for Round 2 as I’m mostly on market for each series except for Colorado and St. Louis. I imagine those will be our only plays. I added that as a future play as well for the second round if you scroll down.
- Colorado in regulation (-138, 1.72) – 1.4 percent: We love the Avs and hate the Blues so this one is only natural. There might be some rest vs. rust in effect here, but hopefully a healthy Avs team just rolls as they should.
Lines to watch
- Calgary: My line above is with Chris Tanev who is worth about two percent. Worth waiting to see if he plays Game 1 (which is the issue here of giving you lines a full day in advance).
Welp. Maybe next year, he says for the 300th year in a row.
- Calgary in regulation (-117, 1.85) – 1.9 percent: The moneyline here at -187 is pretty soft compared to what’s out there. Going to play regulation to lessen the chalk. Flames are the better team here and have been the better team for the majority of the series. I think they take care of business.
An absolutely massive night to close out the season puts us at +20 units on the year. It was an absolute roller coaster getting there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll turn towards recency a little sooner.
There’s no edge on today’s lone game, but it is a good time to talk about the playoffs which start tomorrow. Futures and series prices are the name of the game here and here’s what I would recommend based on the model.
To win Stanley Cup
I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here.
- Colorado +325 – 1 percent: I’m very high on Colorado and have the team’s odds at +233. There’s value on the favourite, but we’ll see if playoff hockey makes that difficult.
- Florida +550 – 1 percent: Betting on the two favorites is pretty square, but both these lines feel short. I have Florida at +339.
- Toronto +1000 – 0.3 percent: ❌
- Minnesota +1800 – 0.3 percent: ❌
To win Conference
I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here. Unsurprisingly it’s the same teams. You can double dip here, or go with one or the other (especially for teams like the Wild or Leafs who would be underdogs in the final against Florida and Colorado respectively, those teams should make it).
- Colorado +130 – 1.3 percent: I think this is close to 50/50 so getting plus-money is nice value even if it’s not a big payout.
- Florida +275 – 1.5 percent: The East is a dogfight, but the Panthers are the clear favorite in that fight and have a cushier path than Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston or Carolina. That first round matchup against Washington helps their odds a lot.
- Toronto +450 – 0.5 percent: ❌
- Minnesota +750 – 0.8 percent: ❌
Again, reducing risk here to one-third as there will be daily game bets. But still some decent edges to be had. These are all series prices.
- Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5 percent: ❌
- Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8 percent: ❌
- Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5 percent: ❌
- Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9 percent: ❌
- Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3 percent: ✅
- Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0 percent: ✅
At one-third risk here.
- Colorado -1.5 (-175, 1.57) – 2.0 percent: Once again taking Colorado on the series line here. I think they can beat the Blues in six or less without much issue.
- Florida (-155, 1.65) – 1.5 percent: No Brayden Point should mean a bigger edge for the Panthers. This edge (based on a 66 percent series probability) is based on him returning midway through. There’s a chance he doesn’t at all, and even if he does I can’t see him being as effective as usual.
Regular Season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3 percent ROI
Playoffs: 13-12, 0.0 units, 0.0 percent ROI
Futures: 2-8, 0.4 units
betstamp profile (2020-21 record does not reflect stake size which is why there’s a discrepancy between what was posted in last year’s betting guide)
2020-21 Betting Guide with record
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